UncoverAlpha

The End of Best AI Model Wins era. Where Does the AI Value Go Next?

For most of the last three years, the way the market valued AI was simple: whoever has the best model on the leaderboard wins, and the value flows to…

Oct 10 • UncoverAlpha

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September 2026

The Agent Economy: Who's Most at Risk?

The takeoff of personal and work AI agents does significantly shift some market dynamics in different sectors of the economy, and in this article I will…

Sep 30 • UncoverAlpha

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Pacing the Frontier: What a Slower Model Cadence Does to Every Layer of the AI Stack

In this article, I assume they actually pace the frontier and walk through what that does to the value of every layer of the AI value chain: the model…

Sep 18 • UncoverAlpha

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Meta just launched its most important product since WhatsApp and Instagram: the Muse AI agent

I cover the business case for Muse Spark and some economics, as well as technical details on how the agent is set up, what this means for Meta’s…

Sep 9 • UncoverAlpha

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August 2026

Meta's AI Infrastructure: Mispriced, Misread, and Massive

I analyzed how big is Meta’s AI data center footprint and how much revenue & profit it could generate. I also shared what moves could change sentiment…

Aug 30 • UncoverAlpha

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Nvidia and the Hyperscalers High Stakes Poker Game

The relationship between Nvidia and the big hyperscalers Amazon, Google, and Microsoft was once very clear and friendly, where one was a supplier and…

Aug 13 • UncoverAlpha

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Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Meta Q2 earnings: The AI CapEx ROIC is bad thesis is DEAD

For more than a year, the number one pushback I hear from investors on big tech is that the CapEx is out of control, and the returns won’t be there…

Aug 3 • UncoverAlpha

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July 2026

Q2 2026 Channel Checks & Alternative Data: Cloud, Ad Tech and Software

I covered the cloud hyperscalers and what I see from aggregating multiple alt providers, and share some of my views on the upcoming earnings. In this…

Jul 17 • UncoverAlpha

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June 2026

Why Token Optimization Is a Gift to the Hyperscalers

The shift away from always-buy-the-best-model is, on its surface, bearish for the AI labs and looks like it should compress the whole stack. But it is…

Jun 29 • UncoverAlpha

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Memory per Token Optimizations. Where are we, and how much more room do we have?

Software optimization techniques for lowering HBM usage and give my estimates on how much of that optimization is already captured, how much reduction…

Jun 11 • UncoverAlpha

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Most of the Economy Won't Run on the Best Model

It’s a thesis about where the money in AI actually goes once we transition to scaled-up AI workloads and how that might look different from today’s…

Jun 4 • UncoverAlpha

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May 2026

The Harness: The Moat for AI Model Providers?

The real moat that the frontier labs are building right now is not the model. It is the harness around the model and the cost of serving the model.

May 22 • UncoverAlpha

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